An Economic Outlook
‘We’re bullish on the Eschaton’

In these possibly ‘latter days’ many of us wonder about the economy.  Where is it headed and what role, if any, might it play in the drama of what some people hope will be our salvation?  In this prognostication, I have the distinct advantage of being made privy to some of the best information that the investor ‘bears’ have to offer, but, as will be obvious, they cannot be held responsible for what follows.

As a point of departure, let us consider the technology ‘bubble’ from an eschatological perspective.  The bears, with much justification, suppose that the eventual bursting of this bubble will be the prelude to a market meltdown and a serious economic slump lasting from several years to a decade.  They’re talking 8K for the Dow and 2K for the Nasdaq.  This is no eschaton, but it is would have serious global consequences.  I am hopeful that the further corrections in the market overvaluations will not be so drastic or so consequential on the economic downside.

Specifically there is the question of the ‘irrational exuberance’ especially on the part of the ‘day traders.’  The bears allege that we have been there and done that in 1929.  It was the same folks, just a different technology: radio & telephone vs Internet.  This is a cogent observation.  I wish only to make a partial refutation.  This will be in the spirit of negotiating a truce between the bears and the bulls, so that we may get on with the larger, shall we say ‘cosmic,’ business.

Let us talk about the irrationality…of the bears.  One thing to know about the bears is that they are investors, albeit cautious ones.  Is it rational to be an investor at all, in these ‘latter days’?  Would not survivalism be the more appropriate measure of caution?  Are there not enough cogent doomsday scenarios out there to justify being much more cautious than simply waiting for the Dow to hit 8K?

My criticism of the bears is that it is hard to take their tepid pessimism seriously.  I can say this with some assurance, being perhaps the only doomsday consultant to the CIA, volunteer though I am.  Do the day traders know something that the rest of us don’t?

I take a global economic crash seriously.  In fact, I take it so seriously that I doubt that God, oops, I mean the Invisible Economic Hand can afford to let that happen.  The day traders then are playing fast and loose with God’s latter day mercy.  Her Invisibleness can only afford to slap their wrists.  They don’t know this; they just sense it.

As with Noah’s flood, the interbellum, global crash of ’29 will be the last one.  This is hardly a license for the traders to commit rape and pillage, but it does mean that God sometimes has to look out for fools.

OK, I am a pre-millennialist.  There will be a Millennium between the imminent messianic event and the eventual Eschaton.  Capitalism will have 1,000 years to wither away.  It will go peacefully to its place of pride in the Economic Hall of Fame.  That is a promise.  Take it for what it is worth.

If capitalism and the day traders bring us nothing more than an economically robust Internet, they will have done their job.  They have helped mightily to make straight the way for the pre-millennial messianic event.  We should all be glad.  Now, all they will have to do is help with the economic part of solving the rest of our mundane human problems.  This will be much easier in the Millennial environment.  It will be a necessary prelude to our then being able to focus on our eschatological, spiritual destiny.

Won’t the day traders be surprised when they find out what Her Invisibleness has put them up to?  It ought to be a revelation.

Nasdaq is down 13 at 11:39.


| Contents |

rev. 6/14/00